Dear Reader,

Today's overview of economic news and market action

• Positive tone to investor sentiment yesterday
• Reflected in gains for equity indices on both sides of the Atlantic
• On the currency front, some volatility for the dollar amid tariff newsflow
• Overall though, it retained a softer tone
• EUR/USD opens this morning in the upper half of $1.04-1.05
• Ahead today, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US retail sales and industrial production (both Jan) are due

All rates quoted are indicative market rates.

Economic picture remains robust, despite geopolitical concerns, with signs of somewhat stronger global growth in early 2025. Core inflation remains sticky in many markets, with risks still tilted to the upside for inflation due to ongoing global trade tensions and high domestic wage pressure.

The AIB Irish Construction PMI survey for January showed a weak start to the year for the sector. The headline index fell back into contractionary territory, with a reading of 48.2 in January, down from 51.6 in December. This is the fourth time in five months that the index has been below 50, highlighting the subdued backdrop for building activity. However, adverse weather conditions in the month, especially Storm Éowyn had a dampening impact on overall construction levels.

The latest AIB Ireland Services PMI® survey indicated a soft start to 2025 for the Irish services economy. Growth of new business and total activity were maintained, but at the weakest rates in nine and four months, respectively. Outstanding work barely rose and employment was broadly unchanged, with job cuts recorded in financial services.

2025 commenced on a solid note, with the Irish manufacturing sector recording an improvement in operating conditions for the first time in three months. Fresh expansions were noted for both new orders and output. More positively, confidence for the year ahead outlook remained strongly optimistic, with many businesses planning to expand capacity.