Dear Reader,

Today's overview of economic news and market action

• Some improvement in European investor sentiment last week
• Reflected in Euro Stoxx 50 gaining 1.4%
• Some modest narrowing in French-German spreads, but still elevated
• Currency-wise, most of the majors confined to tight ranges
• EUR/USD was unable to sustain a move above $1.07
• EUR/GBP was confined to tight range, near midpoint of 84-85p
• Data-wise this week, some key inflation numbers are in focus

Consumer prices rose by 0.5% in May, amid an increase in transport and hospitality costs. However, the YoY rate stayed at 2.6%. Consumer sentiment declined, albeit marginally, for a fourth consecutive month in May. Revisions to the data show the unemployment rate averaged 4.2% in Q1’24 down from 4.5% in Q4’23. On a monthly basis, it has printed at 4.0% in Mar-May.

Renewed momentum in Irish residential property prices 
Irish residential property prices experienced quite a turnaround over the course of 2023. Initially they started the year on a downward trajectory, with the CSO measure of official house prices registering monthly falls, averaging 0.3% in the first 5 months of the year, against the backdrop of rising interest rates.

BoE remains on hold, but edging nearer to cutting rates

The Bank of England kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25% at the conclusion of its June Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. In the immediate aftermath of the last MPC meeting in May, there was increased speculation of the potential for a rate cut in June following dovish comments from Governor Bailey.

Spring tide receding for the global economy?

As we move through the summer, the latest macro data suggest global economies may have lost some momentum of late, following an uptick in activity in the spring.