Dear Reader,
Today's overview of economic news and market action
- Yesterday’s macro diary was US Fed centric
- Minutes/speeches suggest Fed will take gradual approach to rate cuts
- Fed newsflow and rising US yields provided supportive backdrop for dollar
- Overall though FX moves generally modest in magnitude
- EUR/USD opens this morning in the lower half of $1.09-1.10
- EUR/GBP is trading near to the midpoint of 83-84p
- Today’s macro highlights are US CPI (Sept) and the ECB meeting ‘account’
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Today's Opening FX Rates
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% Change Day* |
End 2023 |
| EUR/USD |
1.0938 |
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-0.23 |
-0.89 |
| EUR/GBP |
0.8366 |
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-0.14 |
-3.48 |
| GBP/USD |
1.307 |
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-0.11 |
2.68 |
| GBP/EUR |
1.1947 |
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0.14 |
3.61 |
| *versus Previous Day's European Open |
All rates quoted are indicative market rates.
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Budget 2025
Budget 2025 is set against exceptional budget surpluses. The starting point is a nearly €24bn surplus in 2024, including windfall proceeds from Apple Judgement of €14bn this year. The budget surplus is forecast to be €23.7bn in 2024 (7.5% of GNI*), and €9.7bn in 2025 (2.9% of GNI*). However, excluding windfall receipts, the Government will run significant deficits in the coming years
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AIB Ireland Manufacturing PMI® - September
Irish manufacturers experienced another decline in new work during September, driven by the fastest fall in export sales for five months. Subdued customer demand led to a renewed decline in production volumes and cutbacks to staffing numbers.
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AIB Ireland Services PMI® - September
Irish services activity increased at the strongest rate in six months in September as cost pressures eased, the latest AIB PMI® survey data showed. Growth of both new business and employment moderated, coming in slightly below their long-run trends, but outstanding work increased solidly and the 12-month outlook rebounded since August.
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