Dear Reader,

Today's overview of economic news and market action

• Yesterday’s macro diary was US Fed centric
• Minutes/speeches suggest Fed will take gradual approach to rate cuts
• Fed newsflow and rising US yields provided supportive backdrop for dollar
• Overall though FX moves generally modest in magnitude
• EUR/USD opens this morning in the lower half of $1.09-1.10
• EUR/GBP is trading near to the midpoint of 83-84p
• Today’s macro highlights are US CPI (Sept) and the ECB meeting ‘account’

All rates quoted are indicative market rates.

Budget 2025 is set against exceptional budget surpluses. The starting point is a nearly €24bn surplus in 2024, including windfall proceeds from Apple Judgement of €14bn this year. The budget surplus is forecast to be €23.7bn in 2024 (7.5% of GNI*), and €9.7bn in 2025 (2.9% of GNI*). However, excluding windfall receipts, the Government will run significant deficits in the coming years

Irish manufacturers experienced another decline in new work during September, driven by the fastest fall in export sales for five months. Subdued customer demand led to a renewed decline in production volumes and cutbacks to staffing numbers.

Irish services activity increased at the strongest rate in six months in September as cost pressures eased, the latest AIB PMI® survey data showed. Growth of both new business and employment moderated, coming in slightly below their long-run trends, but outstanding work increased solidly and the 12-month outlook rebounded since August.