Dear Reader,
Today's overview of economic news and market action
- Mixed one to investor sentiment yesterday …
- Eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.4%, while sentiment indicators improved …
- In the US, Q1 GDP and core-PCE inflation were revised lower slightly lower, and jobless claims rose slightly …
- Currency-wise, the dollar was under some pressure. However overnight it recouped most of its losses …
- EUR/USD opens today in the lower half of $1.08-1.09 …
- GBP/USD is in the bottom half of $1.27-1.28 …
- EUR/GBP remains just above 85p …
- Today, Eurozone flash HICP inflation 9May) and US core-PCE inflation (April) will be in focus …
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Today's Opening FX Rates
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% Change Day* |
End 2023 |
| EUR/USD |
1.0818 |
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0.22 |
-1.98 |
| EUR/GBP |
0.8506 |
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0.05 |
-1.87 |
| GBP/USD |
1.2712 |
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0.15 |
-0.13 |
| GBP/EUR |
1.175 |
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-0.05 |
1.90 |
| *versus Previous Day's European Open |
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AIB Economic Outlook - May 2024
- Irish growth expected to continue at a more moderate pace than recent years, as the economy nears full capacity.
- Labour market to continue to grow and employment to reach 2.8 million by 2026.
- Central bank interest rate decreases will support real economy in the coming years.
- Real wages to rise as inflation normalises.
- Key trading partners’ performance provides a steady backdrop for the Irish economy.
- Theme in Focus: The outlook for interest rates.
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Forex and Interest Rate Outlook May
World economy continues to exhibit resilience. However, subdued growth expected again in 2024, with US outperformance starting to wane, UK and Eurozone accelerating. Inflation remains sticky in key markets, particularly the US and UK, with consumer spending underpinning high core inflation, and higher oil prices a renewed inflationary risk.
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Weekly Market Brief 27 - 31 May
Hot Irish Labour Market Coming Off the Boil
Irish labour market expanded at a more moderate pace in Q1, but the data still point to robust growth in the Irish economy at the start of 2024. Employment increased by 0.4% in the quarter, but the annual growth rate slowed to 1.9% y/y (+3.4% y/y in Q4 2023).
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