Dear Reader,

Today's overview of economic news and market action: 

• Firmer tone to sterling last week amid less dovish BoE tone
• At the same time, the dollar remained under pressure
• GBP/USD opens this morning in the upper half of $1.34-1.35
• EUR/GBP is below 87p, while EUR/USD is near midpoint of $1.16-1.17
• Busy US and UK data calendars ahead this week
• Highlights include US CPI inflation (July) and UK Q2 GDP

All rates quoted are indicative market rates.

The Summer Economic Statement (SES) and National Development Plan (NDP) are key milestones towards Budget 2026. The SES sets out the fiscal boundaries of the Budget 2026 package to be announced in the autumn, while the NDP outlines the Government’s medium-term infrastructure priorities.

The July ECB Governing Council meeting saw the central bank leave interest rates on hold. The deposit and refi rates were maintained at 2.00% and 2.15%, respectively. This was the first ECB meeting of 2025 where the central bank refrained from lowering rates. However, this outcome was very much in line with market expectations.