Dear Reader,

Today's overview of economic news and market action

• Softer tone to sterling over the past 24 hours
• It followed lower than forecast UK inflation
• At the same time, dollar has maintained some upward momentum
• EUR/GBP opens at midpoint of 83-84p, GBP/USD below $1.30
• Meanwhile, EUR/USD changing hands at $1.085
• Today’s ECB meeting provides event risk for the euro
• Data-wise, all main releases are US based, including retail sales (Sept)

All rates quoted are indicative market rates.

Budget 2025 is set against exceptional budget surpluses. The starting point is a nearly €24bn surplus in 2024, including windfall proceeds from Apple Judgement of €14bn this year. The budget surplus is forecast to be €23.7bn in 2024 (7.5% of GNI*), and €9.7bn in 2025 (2.9% of GNI*). However, excluding windfall receipts, the Government will run significant deficits in the coming years

Irish manufacturers experienced another decline in new work during September, driven by the fastest fall in export sales for five months. Subdued customer demand led to a renewed decline in production volumes and cutbacks to staffing numbers.

Irish services activity increased at the strongest rate in six months in September as cost pressures eased, the latest AIB PMI® survey data showed. Growth of both new business and employment moderated, coming in slightly below their long-run trends, but outstanding work increased solidly and the 12-month outlook rebounded since August.