Dear Reader,

Today's overview of economic news and market action

• Positive tone to investor sentiment yesterday
• Data-wise, some weaker than expected prints from US releases
• This acted as a headwind for the dollar
• The greenback lost ground to the euro and sterling
• Ahead today, quiet macro diary with a market holiday in the US
• Meanwhile, its election day in the UK

AIB PMI® survey data indicated a loss of growth momentum in the Irish service sector in June, accompanied by waning inflationary pressures. The expansion in total activity eased since May as new business rose at the slowest rate since January, while input prices increased at the softest rate since February 2021.

AIB Ireland Manufacturing PMI® data indicated a deeper deterioration in operating conditions across the Irish manufacturing sector in June. The downturn was the most severe in nearly a year as underlying demand trends continued to worsen and thereby resulted in sharper contractions in new factory orders and production.

Consumer prices rose by 0.5% in May, amid an increase in transport and hospitality costs. However, the YoY rate stayed at 2.6%. Consumer sentiment declined, albeit marginally, for a fourth consecutive month in May. Revisions to the data show the unemployment rate averaged 4.2% in Q1’24 down from 4.5% in Q4’23. On a monthly basis, it has printed at 4.0% in Mar-May.

Renewed momentum in Irish residential property prices 
Irish residential property prices experienced quite a turnaround over the course of 2023. Initially they started the year on a downward trajectory, with the CSO measure of official house prices registering monthly falls, averaging 0.3% in the first 5 months of the year, against the backdrop of rising interest rates.