Dear Reader,

Today's overview of economic news and market action: 

• As widely expected, the US Fed kept monetary policy on hold yesterday …
• The market reaction to the Fed meeting outcome was muted …
• Meantime, risks appetite firmed overnight, amid positive US trade related reports …
• The dollar firmed overnight against this backdrop …
• EUR/USD opens today back below $1.13 …
• GBP/USD is down under the $1.33 handle …
• EUR/GBP remains in and around the 85p mark …
• Today, the BoE is expected to cut rates by 25bps …

All rates quoted are indicative market rates.

The AIB Ireland Services PMI® survey data for April indicated a loss of growth momentum in the services economy as concerns over the economic impact of international trade tensions grew. Total activity and new business increased at the slowest rates in 15 and 18 months, respectively. Moreover, the 12-month outlook was the weakest since October 2020, linked to uncertainty over the fallout from US tariff policies and financial market volatility. That said, companies continued to expand their work forces at a robust rate and outstanding business increased further, while inflationary pressures softened.

April data highlighted a robust upturn in Irish manufacturing production, supported by a further acceleration in new order growth to its strongest for three years. Domestic demand was the main factor boosting manufacturing workloads as export sales dipped slightly since March. Survey respondents commented on head winds from US tariffs and rising global economic uncertainty, but there were also reports of improving demand from European clients. Squeezed margins remained a challenge for goods producers, with input cost inflation hitting a 26-month high in the latest survey period.