Dear Reader,

Today's overview of economic news and market action

• Markets digesting Round 1 French election results
• Euro slightly firmer with signs National Rally may not win absolute majority
• Very busy week ahead
• Politics, macro data and Central banks are on the agenda
• Elections in France and UK
• Data-wise, it includes Eurozone inflation and US payrolls
• ECB Lagarde and Fed Powell are also on the  speaking circuit

AIB Ireland Manufacturing PMI® data indicated a deeper deterioration in operating conditions across the Irish manufacturing sector in June. The downturn was the most severe in nearly a year as underlying demand trends continued to worsen and thereby resulted in sharper contractions in new factory orders and production.

Consumer prices rose by 0.5% in May, amid an increase in transport and hospitality costs. However, the YoY rate stayed at 2.6%. Consumer sentiment declined, albeit marginally, for a fourth consecutive month in May. Revisions to the data show the unemployment rate averaged 4.2% in Q1’24 down from 4.5% in Q4’23. On a monthly basis, it has printed at 4.0% in Mar-May.

Renewed momentum in Irish residential property prices 
Irish residential property prices experienced quite a turnaround over the course of 2023. Initially they started the year on a downward trajectory, with the CSO measure of official house prices registering monthly falls, averaging 0.3% in the first 5 months of the year, against the backdrop of rising interest rates.