Dear Reader,

Today's overview of economic news and market action

• Narrow FX ranges last week
• There was some volatility within this confined trading
• This was prompted by some data surprises from the US and UK
• EUR/USD starts this week in the upper half of $1.07-1.08
• EUR/GBP is changing hands near the midpoint of 85-86p
• Flash PMIs for February are the main data highlight this week

UK data paint a muddled picture of the economy

A plethora of UK data this week provided conflicting evidence on the strength of the economy of late. For the optimists, continuing strength in the labour market and solid retail sales figures for January suggest the UK consumer is recovering some momentum.

US fiscal credibility facing scrutiny as election season nears

Demand was strong, resulting in a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.56 and a yield of 4.093%. However, this auction, along with newly published long-term fiscal forecasts, highlights the sustainability of the federal deficit in the long run as we enter the Presidential election season.

Service sector growth slows to near-three year low

The first batch of AIB PMI® survey data for 2024 signalled a loss of momentum in Irish service sector activity, albeit still extending the current growth sequence that began in March 2021. Rates of expansion in total activity and new business both slowed on the month, with the former rising at the weakest pace in the current upturn.

ECB on hold for third straight meeting

The first policy setting meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council for 2024 saw the Central Bank maintain its key deposit rate at 4%.