Storm Clouds Gathering
by AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit
- The latest quarterly update from the IMF on the outlook for the world economy published last Tuesday saw little change to its forecasts from those issued in January and last October.
- The first point to note is that historically, a 3% growth rate is quite low for the global economy.
- The IMF comments that the tentative signs this year, that the world economy could achieve a soft landing have receded amid sticky core inflation and recent financial sector turmoil.
- The US economy could be most at risk to a downturn, given the stresses in the banking system have been most evident there, and concerns are also greatest about a tightening in credit conditions.
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