The Long March
by AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit
- The Bank of England’s latest set of detailed economic forecasts show it is no longer expecting a recession in the UK.
- However, as the BoE Governor pointed out, this is still a very subdued outlook, with growth running at below 1% over the period 2023-25, following twelve months of essentially, economic stagnation.
- On the inflation front, the central bank reaffirmed that despite the CPI being higher than envisaged in Q1, it still expects the annual rate to decline sharply over the balance of the year,
- Following the hike of 25bps on Thursday, the twelfth increase in this cycle that brought the Bank rate to 4.5%, the BoE refrained from giving clear guidance on the future course of monetary policy.
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