No summer vibe to markets yet
by AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit
- Despite being in the midst of the summer holiday season, political events, macro data surprises, central bank commentary and
global trade tensions.
- Data-wise, it has been noticeable over recent weeks, that despite the US Q2 GDP number printing ahead of forecasts, the
majority of US data have tended to disappoint versus expectations.
- Against this macro backdrop, US rate expectations have softened compared to where they started the month.
- However, the most notable mover among the FX majors has been the Japanese yen. It spent the early part of the month very
much on the defensive, as market rate expectations worked against the currency.
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