In recent months, incoming macro data suggest the global economy continues to grow at a solid pace, despite heightened uncertainty related to US trade and economic policy.
A key driver of this resilience has been the surge in AI‑related investment.
In Europe, activity remains subdued outside of the spike in exports to the US in 2025 ahead of tariffs.
Forward‑looking indicators point to continued muted growth in early 2026, with the current flare up in political uncertainty around the future of the Prime Minister a further risk to confidence.
