President Trump’s reciprocal tariff climb down and de-escalation with China has driven a recovery in markets in recent weeks

However, the uncertainty created by the 90-day pauses and the eventual landing zone for US trade policy is expected to dent global growth, reflected in recent forecast downgrades

Central bank outlook clouded by trade policy uncertainty, with the Fed holding pat on rates amid current uncertainty. We expect Fed cuts to resume in H2 2025.