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Forex and Interest Rate Outlook - July 2026
- Economic picture has been robust in the face of geopolitical shocks.
- De-escalation of Middle East War has driven relief rally for markets.
- US economy continues to outperform, with Eurozone and UK dented by higher energy prices and political uncertainty.
- Higher rate expectations supporting the dollar, but Fed policy outlook more uncertain with new Chair in situ.
- Modest upside for the euro, while sterling could remain on the defensive amid political uncertainty.
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