Given recent market gyrations, exacerbated by a weaker US payrolls number in July, it is worth asking whether the repricing of Fed futures markets for aggressive near-term rate cuts is warranted. Currently, markets are pricing in nearly 100 bps of cuts by the Fed by end-2024, pulling back from the near 125bps of cuts priced in on Monday 5th August following the equity market rout. However, while the US economy is slowing, there are, as yet, few signs that a recession is imminent.